The Ukraine War and the search for common ground
The Ukraine War and the search for common ground
War is lucrative. Plan and invest accordingly.
https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2023/02/10/the-ukraine-war-and-the-search-for-common-ground/
Ukrainian soldiers walk in Bakhmut, in Ukraine's Donetsk region Oct. 1, 2022, amid Russia's attack on the East European country. (CNS photo/Zohra Bensemra, Reuters)
I was wrong. In May and in October of 2022, I wrote articles fearing a prolonged war and hoping for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine to prevent the continuing slaughter. I knew my views were in the minority, and the angry responses to my worries confirmed my sense.
It’s time to seek common ground where all interests converge.
Over the past year, there were no negotiations, and the war continued. Over 150,000 Ukraine soldiers and another 40,000 (give or take tens of thousands) civilians have died. Nearly a third of the Ukraine population is displaced. Russians have lost 40,000 soldiers (some say more). The lights are out all over Ukraine. (There is no need to worry about the precise numbers with 100,000 here and 100,000 there.) Most media reports had Ukraine winning glorious victories. Today, Ukrainians face unmitigated disaster without a massive infusion of military and financial assistance.
Hollywood, politicians, and the media scorned those calling for negotiations to end the bloody mess. The narrative that I feared would triumph, triumphed, and the war grinds on: Putin is another Hitler. Without the U.S. war (most say “proxy war,” after months of simply referring to it as the war in Ukraine) with Russia, Russia will take over Europe. No appeasement. No compromise. No open negotiations. Ever.
I now realize I misdirected my “spider sense” about the war in Ukraine. I projected historical experiences in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. My mistake was fear, which directed me to quixotic calls for peace negotiations. I should have listened to my instincts and looked for lucrative investment opportunities. I aim to recalibrate my skills and place them at the service of my portfolio. On this, we can all agree.
Here are the results of my financial review. I worried the U.S. didn’t have an end game to stop the bloodshed. It turns out I was the one without an end game. Had I acted on my insights, I could have increased my Roth IRA retirement savings account by over fifty percent compared to the declining market.
Over the last year, the S&P 500 declined by 18%. But, defense contractors Raytheon and Northrop Grumman both increased 19% (for a nearly 40% swing). BWX Technologies stocks -– the Trident nuclear missile company – increased 36% (for a 54% swing). Investors may have missed out on buying opportunities a year ago – on the eve of the Russian invasion.
Do not neglect the lucrative military drone market, but expect stiff competition. Buyer beware. The General Atomic Avenger drone costs $12-15 million each. The cost of the Northrup Grumman X-47A is unavailable. The MQ-9 Reaper runs costs a hefty $15.9 million a pop. The MQ-1 Predator sells at the bargain-basement price of $4 million.
Bargain stocks include JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Blackrock. Over the last 12 months, JP Morgan and BlackRock stock prices declined by 7%. Goldman was up 1%. These stocks have considerable upside potential. If the U.S. arranges for an armistice in the next couple of months, we can expect American nation-building to commence using U.S tax dollars. These companies will manage U.S. capital for the reconstruction..
Closely monitor the stock purchases of the American government and political figures. American officials, Senators, and members of Congress are undoubtedly keeping an eye on developments in Ukraine. Nuclear stocks are undervalued if there is a move to escalate the war. A truce will drive up the investment company stocks – especially BlackRock. Keep an eye on the stock purchases of Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell. Pay close attention to the public statements of politicians who receive significant defense industry campaign contributions.
Although the upside potential is modest, we will not likely see significant stock declines in Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. The stock increases over the last 12 months factored in future growth related to the depletion of weapon inventories. But the stocks remain a safe hedge against an economic downturn that will take place in 2023.
The nuclear missile stocks are maxed out in value if we avert nuclear war with a premature armistice with the Russians, or undervalued if there is an exchange of tactical nuclear weapons.
The safest bet is nuclear weapon stocks. Park a considerable part of your portfolio in the following companies connected with the production of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons:
Aecom Bechtel Boeing BWX Technologies Charles Stark Draper Laboratory Fluor General Dynamics Honeywell International Huntington Ingalls Industries Leidos Lockheed Martin Moog Northrop Grumman Raytheon Textron United Technologies Corporation
Chile is the primary producer of iodine that may treat radiation sickness. Some experts deny iodine is an atomic prophylactic. Nevertheless, Chile’s geography will ensure sustained industrialization in a nuclear war era. Consider Chilean companies to build a robust foreign investment portfolio.
Don’t forget to invest in companies producing body bags. On and on it goes.
What to make of the current situation? The reports vary widely and wildly. Putin is a monster, or Zelensky is a manipulative clown. Ukraine is winning. Ukraine is losing. Russia deliberately targets civilian centers, or Ukraine’s military seeks refuge among civilians inviting indiscriminate attacks. Ukrainian soldiers castrate and execute Russian POWs.
Dissent, however, from the predominant media narrative is not permitted. “I Stand with Ukraine” ranks alongside climate change, COVID, and Black Lives Matter. So if you find yourself in a minority position, don’t argue. Be happy. Look for those investment opportunities and cash in.
Past performance guarantees future results.
